电力行业应对气候变化技术与政策选择
Low Carbon Technology and Policy in China Power Sector
中国经济体制改革研究会公共政策研究中心
长策智库
目 录
前 言
001 应对气候变化电力行动方案建议
002 第一部分 导言
003 第二部分 电力与气候变化
007 第三部分 电力应对气候变化的指导思想、基本原则和努力目标
008 第四部分 电力应对气候变化的重点领域和主要行动
011 第五部分 保障措施
015 第一篇 电力行业应对气候变化现状
016 研究报告1：电力行业发展现状
016 一、电力消费状况
017 二、发电状况
018 三、电网状况
020 四、总结
021 研究报告2：电力行业CO2排放现状
021 一、研究方法与基本假设
021 二、电力行业CO2排放状况
023 三、电力行业CO2排放在中国应对气候变化中的地位
023 四、总结
024 研究报告3：中国电力部门减缓气候变化的努力
024 一、中国电力二氧化碳排放现状
025 二、中国电力部门减缓气候变化的努力
037 三、总结
043 第二篇 电力行业应对气候变化技术选择
044 研究报告1：电力行业应对气候变化技术路径选择
044 一、提高非化石能源发电量比例
047 二、提高火电机组效率和降低电网线损
053 三、结论及建议
055 研究报告2：哥本哈根承诺和非化石能源发电技术比较
055 一、非化石能源发电技术的范围
056 二、基本设定
057 三、计算结果及分析
059 四、结论
065 研究报告3：电力行业应对气候变化技术成本曲线研究
065 一、导论
066 二、电力行业减排CO2技术选择
067 三、减排技术的发电成本及碳排放强度
073 四、基年（2005年）发电成本与碳排放强度曲线
074 五、电力需求、非碳电源发展想定方案及碳排放强度
079 六、其它影响因素分析
081 七、结论
091 研究报告4：电力行业CO2排放强度目标与成本关系
092 一、导论
094 二、方法论介绍
100 三、基础参数及假设
109 四、电力行业成本与CO2强度减排目标关系曲线
111 五、电力行业CO2强度减排的政策分析
117 六、政策组合分析
124 七、结论和政策建议
125 八、本研究的不足及下一步工作
127 第三篇 电力行业应对气候变化政策选择
128 研究报告1：电力行业应对气候变化政策现状及实施重点
128 一、导论
129 二、中国电力行业减少温室气体排放政策的现状
137 三、中国电力行业应对气候变化政策实施重点
141 四、政策改善建议
144 研究报告2：电力行业上大压小政策成本收益分析
144 一、关停小火电机组政策的基本内容
146 二、关停小火电机组政策的实施进展与特点
150 三、政策成本收益分析方法概述
153 四、关闭小火电政策的成本收益分析
160 五、结论和建议
163 研究报告3：差别电价政策收益成本分析
164 一、导论
166 二、中国电力消费状况
170 三、差别电价政策执行状况
173 四、差别电价政策效果分析
185 五、差别电价政策成本分析
197 六、差别电价政策收益成本分析
198 七、差别电价政策执行中存在的问题
200 八、差别电价政策进一步执行的建议
200 九、需进一步研究的内容
209 研究报告4：差别电价对节能减排的贡献政策评估
209 一、导论
210 二、差别电价政策回顾
212 三、福建省差别电价的政策实践
216 四、差别电价对节能减排的贡献实证分析
218 五、差别电价政策优化
221 六、主要结论与政策建议
228 研究报告5：可再生能源全额收购政策对电价的影响
228 一、可再生能源全额收购政策和电价政策现状
231 二、可再生能源全额收购政策对电价的影响分析
232 三、可再生能源全额收购政策的积极作用及主要问题
236 四、解决问题的对策建议
239 第四篇 电力行业应对气候变化与宏观经济
240 研究报告1：金融海啸冲击下我国能源情景分析与预测
240 一、金融海啸对世界经济的影响
244 二、金融海啸对我国经济的影响
247 三、金融海啸对世界能源与电力行业的影响
254 四、金融海啸对我国能源和电力行业的影响
270 研究报告2：基于CGE模型的电力行业应对气候变化政策对经济影响研究
270 一、导论
272 二、CGE模型概述及数据基础
275 三、模型及情形假定
276 四、政策模拟结果分析
280 五、政策和建议
282 研究报告3：基于投入产出模型的电力行业碳排放强度与单位GDP碳排放强度关系
282 一、中国的减排承诺与电力行业的减排地位
284 二、研究思路与数据来源
285 三、电力行业二氧化碳排放系数的计算
287 四、电力减排与单位GDP二氧化碳排放强度之间的关系
290 五、结论与建议
295 第五篇 电力行业应对气候变化国际经验
296 研究报告1：电力行业应对气候变化政策国际经验
296 一、综合资源规划与需求侧管理（IRP/DSM）
297 二、电力部门碳捕捉
299 三、气候变化征税
300 四、碳税
302 五、结论及建议
303 研究报告2：中美电力工业CO2排放比较
303 一、中美电力工业比较
309 二、中美电力工业CO2排放比较
311 三、结论
313 研究报告3：中美电力行业应对气候变化比较
313 一、导论
313 二、中美电力行业对比
318 三、中美电力行业应对气候变化政策异同
319 四、中国电力行业应对气候变化的挑战
320 五、结论
Contents
PREFACE
001 Proposal on Climate Change Mitigation Action Plan for Electric Power Sector
002 1. Introduction
003 2. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change
007 3. Guiding Ideology, Fundamental Principles, and Main Objectives of Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
008 4. Focus Areas and Main Actions of Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
011 5. Safeguards
015 CHAPTER ONE Current Situation of Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
016 Report One: Status of Electric Power Sector Development
016 1. Status of Electric Energy Consumption
017 2. Status of Electric Power Generation
018 3. Status of Electric Power Grids
020 4. Summary
021 Report Two: Current Status of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Sector
021 1. Methodologies and Basic Assumptions
021 2. Status of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Sector
023 3. The Position of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Sector
023 4. Summary
024 Report Three: Electric Power Sector's Endeavors in Climate Change Mitigation in China
024 1. Current Status of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Sector in China
025 2. Electric Power Sector's Endeavors in Climate Change Mitigation in China
037 3. Summary
043 CHAPTER TWO Technology Options for Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
044 Report One: Technology Roadmaps on Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
044 1. Increasing the Proportion of Non-Fossil Energy
047 2. Improving the Efficiency of Thermal Generation Units and Reducing T&D Line Loss
053 3. Conclusions and Recommendations
055 Report Two: Copenhagen Commitments and Comparison of Non-Fossil Power Generation Technologies
055 1. The Scope of Non-Fossil Power Generation Technologies
056 2. Basic Assumptions
057 3. Calculations and Analysis
059 4. Summary
065 Report Three: Technology Cost Curve for Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
065 1. Introduction
066 2. Technology Options for CO2 Emission Reduction in Electric Power Sector
067 3. Generation Costs and Carbon Intensity of Abatement Technologies
073 4. Power Generation Cost Curve and Carbon Emission Intensity Curve inBase Year (2005)
074 5. Power Demand, Non-Fossil Power Planning and Carbon Intensity
079 6. Analysis of Other Influencing Factors
081 7. Summary
091 Report Four: The Relationship between CO2 Emission Intensity Targets and Costs in Electric Power Sector
092 1. Introduction
094 2. Methodologies
100 3. Basic Parameters and Assumptions
109 4. Relationship Curve of CO2 Emission Intensity Targets and Costs in Electric Power Sector
111 5. Policies Analysis on CO2 Intensity Reduction in Electric Power Sector
117 6. Analysis of Policy Combinations
124 7. Conclusions and Recommendations
125 8. Deficiencies of the Research and Next Steps
127 CHAPTER THREE Policy Options for Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
128 Report One: Current Status of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Electric Power Sector and Implementation Focus Areas
128 1. Introduction
129 2. Current Status of Policies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction from Eclectic Power Sector in China
137 3. Implementation Focus Areas of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Electric Power Sector in China
141 4. Proposal on Policy Refinement
144 Report Two: Benefit-cost Analysis on Launching Large Power Plants and Closing Small Thermal Power Plants in Electric Power Sector
144 1. Basic Content of Closing Small Thermal Power Plants
146 2. Implementation Process and Characteristics of Closing Small Thermal Power Plants
150 3. Methodologies for Benefit-cost Analysis
153 4. Cost and Benefit Analysis on Closing Small Thermal Power Plants
160 5. Conclusions and Recommendations
163 Report Three: Benefit-cost Analysis on Differential Pricing Policy
164 1. Introduction
166 2. Status of Power Consumption in China
170 3. Status of the Implementation of Differential Pricing Policy
173 4. Effects Analysis of Differential Pricing Policy
185 5. Cost Analysis of Differential Pricing Policy
197 6. Cost and Benefit Analysis of Differential Pricing Policy
198 7. Problems in the Implementation of Differential Pricing Policy
200 8. Recommendations on the Further Implementation of Differentiated Tariffs
200 9. Deficiencies of the Research and Next Steps
209 Report Four: Policy Evaluation on the Contributions of Differential Pricing Policy to Energy Saving and Emission Reduction
209 1. Introduction
210 2. Review on Differential Pricing Policy
212 3. Practice of Differential Pricing Policy in Fujian Province
216 4. Evidence Analysis of the Contributions of Differential Pricing Policy to Energy Saving and Emission Reduction
218 5. Optimization of Differential Pricing Policy
221 6. Main Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
228 Report Five: The Influence of Protective Full Amount Acquisition of Renewable Energy on Power Price
228 1. Current Status of Protective Full Amount Acquisition of Renewable Energy and Power Pricing Policies
231 2. Analysis on the Influence of Protective Full Amount Acquisition of Renewable Energy on Power Price
232 3. Positive Effects and Major Problems of Protective Full Amount Acquisition of Renewable Energy
236 4. Solutions
239 CHAPTER FOUR Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector and Macro-Economy
240 Report One: Scenario Analysis and Forecast of Energy in China in the Shock of Financial Crisis
240 1. The Influence of Financial Crisis on Global Economy
244 2. The Influence of Financial Crisis on China Economy
247 3. The Influence of Financial Crisis on World Energy and Power Sector
254 4. The Influence of Financial Crisis on China's Energy and Power Sector
270 Report Two: Analysis of the Influence of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Electric Power Sector on Economy Based on CGE Model
270 1. Introduction
272 2. CGE Model and Data
275 3. Model and Scenario Assumptions
276 4. Analysis of Policy Simulations
280 5. Policies and Recommendations
282 Report Three: Analysis of the Relationship between Carbon Intensity of Electric Power Sector and Carbon Intensity Per Unit of GDP Based on Input-Output Model
282 1. China's Emission Reduction Commitments and the Position of Electric Power Sector in Emission Reduction
284 2. Methodology and Data Resources
285 3. Coefficient of CO2 Emission from Electric Power Sector
287 4. Relationship between Emission Reduction in Electric Power Sector and CO2 Emission Intensity Per Unit of GDP
290 5. Conclusions and Recommendations
295 CHAPTER FIVE International Experience in Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
296 Report One: International Experience in Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector
296 1. Integrated Resource Planning and Demand Side Management
297 2. Carbon Capture and Storage
299 3. Tax on Climate Change
300 4. Carbon Tax
302 5. Conclusions and Recommendations
303 Report Two: Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Industry in China and U.S.
303 1. Comparison of Electric Power Industry in China and U.S.
309 2. Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Electric Power Industry in China and U.S.
311 3. Summary
313 Report Three: Comparison of Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector in China and U.S.
313 1. Introduction
313 2. Comparison of Electric Power Sector in China and U.S.
318 3. Comparison of Policy Options for Climate Change Mitigation in Electric Power Sector in China and U.S.
319 4. Challenges Facing China's Electric Power Sector on Climate Change Mitigation
320 5. Summary
