Myanmar's special national conditions dictate the country can neither return to the junta era, nor can it carry out drastic democratic reforms in one swoop.
Civilians Come to Power
宋清润
Myanmar's newly elected President U Thein Sein, vice presidents U Tin Aung Myint Oo and Sai Mauk Kham, together with all ministers, took their oaths on March 30, officially ending the country's military regime. Myanmar's "roadmap to democracy," which the military government proposed in 2003, was fulfilled. The country is now ready for further reform.
Myanmar held its first general election in recent 20 years on November 7 last year. The Union Solidarity and Development Party, supported by the military junta, won an overwhelming victory and occupied majority seats in both union and local parliaments.
Military rule
Myanmar's military played a crucial role in its struggle for independence from British colonists. After gaining independence in 1948, the country suffered lingering turbulence because of various armed rebellions and power struggles.
Prime Minister U Nu established a parliamentary system in Myanmar shortly after its independence. But the Central Government at that time was too weak to control domestic situation. Besides, internal power struggles occurred inside the ruling Anti-Fascist People's Freedom League. Conflicts also broke out among different ethnic groups and interest groups. Workers and students held strikes. At one time, ethnic militants even besieged the capital.
Under these circumstances, General Ne Win organized a caretaker government from 1958 to 1960 to stabilize the situation. U Nu came into power once again after the 1960 election. But the situation was still out of control. Ne Win launched a coup and established a military junta in 1962. During the later years of the Ne Win administration, Myanmar found itself embroiled in civil wars and isolated from the rest of the world.
Myanmar became one of the world's poorest nations in 1987. Dire poverty triggered rising popular resentment against Ne Win's military junta. In 1988, Ne Win was forced to step down after the junta failed to suppress demonstrations. In September that year, General Saw Maung launched another coup. Then, Aung San Suu Kyi founded the National League for Democracy (NLD) to oppose the military regime.
In 1990, Myanmar's military government held a general election in an attempt to lessen public discontent. The NLD won 396 of the 485 parliament seats, while the pro-junta National Unity Party got only 10. Insisting that it should formulate a constitution for the country before transferring power, the junta didn't end its rule until March 2011.
Given its tumultuous situation after independence, Myanmar needed the military's firm hand. That's why the military government existed for such a long time. However, the junta came under increasing pressure from both at home and abroad.
Western countries and organizations enforced more than 20 years of sanctions against Myanmar, intending to topple the military government. Under the rigid junta system, the country's economy stagnated, while people in Myanmar lived hard lives. The country was in urgent need of change and development.
Therefore, the sooner the military government held the multi-party election, the quicker the country would relieve pressure from at home and abroad and embrace transformation and development.
A civilian government
More than 60 percent of Myanmar's 29 million voters voted in the recent election, which was fairly open, smooth and transparent. The election results were accepted by China, India, Russia and ASEAN. The West criticized the election, but didn't impose further sanctions. Joseph Yun, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, visited Myanmar from December 7 to 10 last year, only one month after the election—a sign showing the United States wanted to keep in touch with Myanmar. The EU is also debating whether or not it should adjust its Myanmar policy.
Myanmar's union parliament started to hold meetings on January 31. The parliament elected former Joint Chief of Staff of Myanmar's armed forces U Shwe Mann speaker of the House of Representatives, former Culture Minister U Khin Aung Myint speaker of the House of Nationalities, former Prime Minister U Thein Sein president, and U Tin Aung Myint Oo first secretary of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)—the official name of the former military regime—and Sai Mauk Kham, a representative at the House of Nationalities, vice presidents.
The day before, Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of the SPDC, issued a statement, announcing he would dissolve the SPDC as well as local peace and development councils after federal officials took their oaths and would finish the transfer of judicial, legislative and executive powers to the civilian government.
Given Myanmar's long military rule from 1962 to 2011, the most historical characteristic of the new government is that it was born through elections. Officials in the new government, from the president to ministers, were all approved by parliament in keeping with procedures enshrined in the Myanmar's 2008 Constitution and its Election Law. Ministers of civil affairs, border affairs and defense are from the military, while the rest of the ministers are civilians or retired military officials. In the military government, all officials were from the military.
The Constitution stipulates the term of Myanmar's parliament and government is five years. The country must have its government changed through elections on a regular basis. Voters can participate in national political affairs by choosing from dozens of parties. The smooth election and organization of the new government set a good example for the future.
The organization and personnel arrangement of the new government show the government will be committed to promoting development, offering services and strengthening national unity. The military government, however, focused on maintaining social order and guaranteeing the military's administration.
President U Thein Sein has extensive experience in both political and military affairs, which will help him effectively coordinate the relationship between the military and the government. From 2007 to early 2011, he acted as prime minister of Myanmar, and participated in the drawing up of the country's roadmap to democracy. Vice President U Tin Aung Myint Oo has been in charge of the country's economic and financial affairs for a long time, and this experience will be helpful as the country focuses on economic development.
The new government also includes a number of social elites. For instance, it has appointed a university president as minister of education. These technocrats have more professional knowledge than their predecessors from the military. Moreover, Myanmar's new-generation politicians are mostly in their 50s or 60s, and are on average at least 10 years younger than leaders in the military junta.
Vice President Sai Mauk Kham is from the Shan ethnic group. There are 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar, making national reconciliation one of the country's major tasks. Shan, the largest ethnic minority in Myanmar, is of great importance for national reconciliation. The Shan State is the biggest state in the country. Several ethnic militant groups are currently operating in the state, with a total of 30,000 fighters.
Sai Mauk Kham is well respected by his people. No person from a minority ethnic group has assumed such a high-ranking post during the past 50 years. The government hopes to realize national solidarity and establish a sense of identity among all ethnic groups in virtue of Sai Mauk Kham's influence.
President U Thein Sein said he would establish a government of justice and integrity in his inaugural speech, calling for national unity and reconciliation. He laid emphasis on promoting economic growth, establishing a market economy and inviting foreign investment. The new government will also amend Myanmar's laws to boost economic development and protect the environment. By trying to improve its image at home and abroad, it brings new hopes for the underdeveloped country.
Myanmar's special national conditions dictate the country can neither return to the junta era, nor can it carry out drastic democratic reforms in one swoop. It needs a steady and progressive way to realize reform and development. The military will continue to serve as a stabilizer for the country. The multi-party election in November last year and the inauguration of the civilian government in March this year opened the door to further changes in Myanmar.
The new government, of course, still faces a host of challenges, such as a crashed economy, opposition from former NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, ethnic militants and sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe.
（宋清润，中国现代国际关系研究院南亚东南亚研究所，长策智库 GMEP 特约研究员）
